BRIER.

Brier.

Forecasting, scored honestly.

A hash-chained, append-only record of sports predictions — timestamped before the event, graded against the close, and independently verifiable by anyone.

§ 01

The record

Live, graded, and public. Not a highlight reel.

Record begins when live grading starts.

The record starts here. Every prediction is timestamped before first pitch and graded against the close. Nothing hidden.

§ 02

Method

Three steps, in order. Skipping any one of them breaks the record.

1
Predict

A model produces a probability and a stake size before an event starts. Nothing here is a human's after-the-fact opinion.

2
Publish

The prediction is signed, hashed, and chained to the row before it, then timestamped — before the event, not after.

3
Grade

Once the event ends and a verifiable market close exists, the prediction is graded against it. No close, no grade.

§ 03

Markets

What's covered today — expanded only as the model earns it.

MLB — Strikeout props
Pitcher strikeout totals, graded against Kalshi closes.
§ 04

Pricing

What's live today, and what's launching next.

Free

Sign up, no payment.

  • Full searchable graded history
  • CLV chart & Brier trend
  • Calibration dashboard
  • One delayed same-day pick
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Paid

Flat-fee subscription.

  • Live pre-outcome feed — predictions before first pitch
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§ 05

FAQ

Can old predictions be edited or removed?

No. The predictions table is append-only at the database level — the server itself has no UPDATE or DELETE privilege on it, regardless of who's asking.

What happens if a prediction can't be verified against a real market close?

It's marked ungraded and stays out of the public record. Brier doesn't grade on an assumption.

Why start with one market?

Grading is only as honest as the closing-line data behind it. One market, done right, beats several done loosely.